Climate Change Is Now: Brace Yourselves

Barbara Kingsolver's novel Flight Behaviour, which was released in 2012, features as one of its characters an entomologist named Dr. Ovid Byron, who becomes a voice for climate awareness and accountability after a freak migration of monarch butterflies to the United States from Mexico. During a TV interview in which a reporter cites divided opinions over the existence of climate change and humans' role in it, Byron explodes, saying, "We are at the top of Niagara Falls, Tina, in a canoe. There is an image for your viewers. We got here by drifting, but we cannot turn around for a lazy paddle back [...] We have arrived at the point of an audible roar. Does it strike you as a good time to debate the existence of the falls?"

A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a United Nations agency, has indubitably proved that the falls do indeed exist, and that the "audible roar" has reached a point where it may indeed threaten the future of humanity. The impact of anthropogenic climate change is now a "statement of fact," rather than the point of scientific and policy debate that it has been for several years. It is also likely irreversible, making it likely that humanity's future will be subject to higher temperatures and more devastating climate-change related disasters. 

The report suggests that the climate impact of human activities like fossil fuels, deforestation and the disruption of natural ecosystems has finally reached a point where climate change is irreversible on timescales that may even stretch to millennia; on the other hand, the most dramatic changes that led us to this point have occurred in a matter of generations. The net observed warming of surface temperatures from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 has been approximately 1.07°C, with a faster increase from 1970-2020 than in any previously recorded period. 

While earlier studies, such as the Gaia theory proposed by James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis, had suggested that an equilibriating tendency and feedback system exists between the biosphere and natural forces like the atmosphere and oceans, anthropogenic climate change now appears to have reached a point where, even in the most optimistic scenario, these systems cannot compensate for its impact. Even Lovelock spoke, around the time of the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, of a 'revenge of Gaia,' in which the earth, no longer able to cope with the havoc being wreaked by human action, reacts in the form of natural disasters and freak weather events.

This is a theory that the IPCC also seems to corroborate, though without reference to Lovelock's theory. Coming in a year that has already seen forest fires in California and Greece, massive floods in Western Europe, China and India, heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest, and a general uptick in the number of natural disasters, the report states with medium to high confidence that the increase in severity of these disasters has largely been the result of human activities. 

Moreover, delays in implementing policies to curb the use of fossil fuels will mean that it is almost impossible to avoid a 1.5°C rise over the next twenty or thirty years. In this, the report presents no new information; it is one of several that have indicated in recent years that we are in fact at the brink of a precipice when it comes to climate change. However, these studies have had insufficient impact on economic and policy decisions, as several climate pacts, like the 2015 Paris Agreement, have fallen short of targets. This has to change as soon as possible. 

As the climate activist Greta Thunberg wrote in a tweet thread on Monday, the report is merely a solid, albeit cautious summary of existing scientific research, but "It doesn't tell us what to do. It is up to us to be brave and take decisions based on the scientific evidence provided in these reports." A key part of these decisions will have to be dramatic and sustained curbs on fossil fuel emissions, whether in the form of direct rations on the amount of fuel available, or financial incentives such as carbon taxes or subsidies on green energy. 

The new IPCC report contains no real surprises. It confirms what we already know from thousands previous studies and reports - that we are in an emergency. It’s a solid (but cautious) summary of the current best available science. 1/2

— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) August 9, 2021

Moreover, governments and individuals need to take steps to shore up existing infrastructure and livelihoods against the impact of climate change. A recent article in the Economist argued that such investment was not only necessary, but made political sense for governments to protect their citizens. However, it is necessary for organizations like the IPCC to ensure that such systems are not just put in place to benefit more well-off countries, but that they are part of larger attempts to achieve justice and equity when dealing with the impact of climate change. Ultimately, if the global community is able to work together to act on the implications of this report and of preexisting science, there is still a chance that we may be able to mitigate the damage that climate change has caused and will continue to cause.

Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay